Source and method

How EcoForge produces a forecast

Where the figures come from

EcoForge is built on published UK local-authority greenhouse-gas emissions data. Every headline number traces back to that source data for the authority you select — Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham or Sheffield — broken down by sector.

What CO₂e means

CO₂e is “carbon dioxide equivalent” — one unit that expresses the climate impact of every greenhouse gas, not just CO₂.

Gases warm the planet at different rates: methane warms far more strongly than CO₂ over 20 years. CO₂e converts each gas into the amount of CO₂ that would cause the same warming.

So an intervention that cuts 1 tonne of methane and 3 tonnes of CO₂ is reported as a single CO₂e total — which is what lets you compare interventions fairly across sectors.

Every headline figure EcoForge shows — totals, business-as-usual lines and savings alike — is quoted in CO₂e, which is what makes a transport intervention and a waste intervention comparable on the same chart, and what makes the number defensible in a committee room.

How the forecast is produced

A scenario is a single intervention: a percentage cut applied to one sector, measured against a baseline year you choose. EcoForge projects the emissions pathway to 2040 in three phases (to 2030, 2035 and 2040), comparing your intervention against a business-as-usual pathway where nothing changes. The two headline years are the figures you take away for your evidence base.

How certain the numbers are

These are modelled estimates, not measurements. Uncertainty grows the further a projection reaches from the base year — treat values beyond 2035 as indicative rather than precise.

What data we hold

If you have an account we store your email address and nothing else about you personally. There is no password to set; you sign in with a one-time link that expires after 15 minutes.

Our privacy page covers the cookies we set and what happens to a request to get in touch.